The second method of Backtesting is performed manually and visually by the trader. The trader would take the historical data and scroll back in time on a chart and manually apply the trading strategy as if it was in a real time environment.

How to eliminate the hindsight factor while doing manual Backtesting? The trader would advance the chart bar by bar in order to refrain from seeing price action subsequent to the trade at hand. This eliminates trading in hindsight that is detrimental to an objective backtest.

The major disadvantage of Backtesting as compared to automated testing is the significant potential for human error in executing simulated trades and recording performance results.

Additionally the normal range of human emotions and biases that often interfere with actual trading can be a detrimental factor in achieving objective backtest results. Furthermore, it takes a great deal of work and discipline to simulate trades manually over a large data set without straying from the strict rules of the trading strategy.

However, Backtesting manually can provide the trader with the real feel for actually trading the strategy. This provides valuable trading experience although simulated but still a valuable trading experience that no automated backtest could possibly provide.

Backtesting can save traders a great deal of time and money that might otherwise had been wasted on trading unprofitable strategies. Backtesting whether done manually or automatically can be one of the most important elements of building a solid trading strategy.

You must have heard a lot about the benefits of autotrading. Autotrading is the latest fad especially in forex trading where the number of major currency pairs is only six. This makes programming forex autotrading easy. Any mechanical trading system can be backtested. This leads us to the important question of autotrading. These autotrading systems are popularly known as Expert Advisors or Forex Robots.

In contrast, stock autotrading systems can be big more complicated. The US Stock Market has got more than 50,000 stocks listed with them as compared to the forex market where there are not more than six major currency pairs. This makes programming a stock trading robot a bit complicated. However, during the past decade major breakthrough in computer programming has been made.

Big institutions like banks, corporations and hedge funds have always been taking benefit of these autotrading systems. Backtesting is one of the most important components of testing an autotrading system.

Backtesting and autotrading are two important components of implementing trading strategies that generally do not rely upon the trader’s judgments or discretion. These types of strategies are primarily technical in nature, and they must necessarily have rules and criteria that are unambiguous.

Backtesting allows the trader to determine if a given strategy would have been profitable using past price data, which is an indication of how it might potentially perform in the future. In contrast, autotrading actually executes real trades automatically according to a pre – programmed set of instructions that sets trade entries, stop losses, and profit limits.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Click here to get your own unique version of this article with free reprint rights.

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October is the month in which the most infamous crashes historically took place. The party starts in December and continues in the early part of January with some hangover effect. So what is the January Effect?

New Year is the end of a year and the beginning of a new year. This is what makes the January Effect so special. There is usually a rally in the stocks in the first few days of January. There are various reasons behind the rally. Most of the people are trying to pay their taxes at that time of the year. The companies are trying to show a good performance at the end of the year by cleaning their balance sheets. The January Effect can be quite a rally but much depends on the strength of the economy, how good December was and is there any catalyst to move the markets. There is usually a significant rally in the early part of January that actually sets the tone for the rest of the month and sometimes for the rest of the year. New Year is party time. People are in exuberant mood. Everyone wants to forget the past year and start the coming year with high hopes and good expectations. This is what is so special about the January Effect. So what is this January Effect? January Effect actually starts in the mid December and tends to favor small stocks. The most profitable period as measured statistically has been found to start from December 31st and end around February 28th with an average rate of return of 6.6% on smaller stocks.

Now January Effect may happen or may not happen but the turn of the month that is the last day of the month and first five days of the next month form a very good seasonal pattern. Now, you must know this fact that the January Effect is not guaranteed every year. The best example is the year 2007 when the market became bearish and didnt start to look to bottom out until March 2008.

If you buy stocks at the last day of the month and hold them for the first five days for the next month, chances are you are going to make some profit. This can be a good swing trading strategy. At the end of the fifth day you move your money back into the money market funds. Turn of the month is a very good seasonal pattern that actually holds up more often than not.

You can do the same on the holidays. Move your money in on the day before the holiday and sell it on the day after the holiday. This system works because the pension funds tend to put new money to work during the holidays and the overall tendency of the market to rise improves.

People start to feel happy when the holidays approach and buy stocks before they run off to celebrate Christmas, the fourth of July, the Labor Day and so on. After the party the reality sets in the stocks are usually sold off. The holidays and those times when people traditionally take vacations often lead to higher prices. Fewer traders lead to lower trading volume which in turn tends to exaggerate price moves.

Thats because these days fall within the most bullish time period of the year, winter! The three days before the New Year Eve and the first three days trading days after the New Year are your best holiday bet for making money.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Know These Candlestick Patterns! Click here to get your own unique version of this article with free reprint rights.

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Investing and investments are usually if not seen as a “risk versus benefit” analysis structure. Some people live to gamble , others live to invest. Look at the long lineup at the information booth at your local shopping mall. These people put their hard earned money down gladly for a chance at the big one “the lotto” , the Irish Sweepstakes or the state or provincial lotteries. Yet if asked these same “investors” would scoff at the concepts of making their life’s fortune on forex – foreign currency trading.

In business and investments , money is always changing hands . What goes up and some point goes down. Buy low and sell high is the refrain. This is the whole point of the exercise – to buy specific currencies when they are being sold at a lower rate than would be expected and sell these same holdings either at a higher value at a given point in time , and yet at other times to even dump holdings before times get even worse for the party in question. No trader can ever be right 100 % of the time , just as no stock broker can be unfailingly accurate each and every trade. It is a numbers game overall – the winner picks the best and wisest choice in the highest percentages of trades. Its a simple as that.

Generally a smart forex trader will use both forms of analysis when operating in the currency markets. Interestingly the world renowned British financial magazine “The Economist” uses a scale of McDonald’s hamburgers and their comparative pricing around the world , back to a standard reference point as to the relative value of foreign currencies vis- a-vis each other. The method has been more than criticized in the staid world of international finance yet the Economist’s ledger seems to be remarkably accurate in its statical record and history.

Currency markets are heavily influenced by news happenings. A change of political fortune or an election can change the value of a currency. A storm or natural disaster can do the same. Forex trading has the potential for large gains, but conversely there is the risk of large losses. If you enter the forex speculation Market you need to be clear what your risk profile is.

There are ways to protect you in such a volatile market such as stop loss trading. This is where you set a lower limit below which you do not want to pass and if the currency pair drops below this your trade will be made, there by protecting you from any further drop in the currency value.

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Multiple time frame trading is a trading method used extensively by forex traders. It involves the use of multiple timeframes. In this method, a trader first looks at a longer timeframe like a monthly or weekly chart to determine the overall direction of the trend.

Professional traders always use multiple timeframes. Multiple timeframe trading means using three or more timeframes in your trading. You as a trader decide to drill down to a shorter timeframe like the daily or 4 hourly chart to look for dips or pullbacks in the trend if you find a decisive long term trend on this timeframe.

A minor downward retracement would represent a potentially high probability entry to get in the trend at a reasonably good price in a strong long term uptrend. Finally the trader may drill down to an even shorter timeframe like the 30 minutes or 15 minutes charts to pinpoint and time the exact entry.

How do you trade multiple timeframes? Suppose, you are interested in trading multiple timeframes! You identify the retracement in an uptrend on a 4 hourly chart. What you need to do is to wait for a resistance breakout on a 15 minute chart in the direction of the trend before entering into a long position.

Multiple timeframe trading can be very powerful if used correctly. What make multiple timeframe trading so powerful is that it puts the traders on the right side of the market while also identifying the highest probability entries available.

What is Triple Screen trading? Have you heard of the triple screen trading method? One of the multiple timeframe trading strategies is known as Triple Screen. A triple screen resolves the contradiction between the technical indicators and timeframes. The first screen is the long term charts and strategic decisions on long term charts are made using the trend following indicators. How do you decide what is long term? It depends on your favorite timeframe.

The second screen is used to make technical decisions about entries and exits using oscillators. The second screen is the intermediate charts. Suppose your favorite timeframe is the 4 hour chart. Call it your intermediate time frame. The third screen can be an intermediate chart or a short term chart. The third screen is used to place buy and sell orders.

How do you decide what is intermediate and what is long term? Begin by looking at your favorite chart, the one that you use the most. Call it intermediate chart. Multiply its length by five to find the long term chart. Now use trend following indicators on the long term charts.

Staying out of the trade is a legitimate position. Use these trend following indicators like the moving averages, MACD or trendlines in the long term charts to make your strategic decision to go long, short or stay out of the trade.

Return to the intermediate chart if the long term chart is bearish or bullish. Use oscillators to look for entry or exit points in the direction of the long term trend. Set stops and profit targets before you switch to short term charts to fine tune entries and exits.

On the short term chart look for the support/resistance breakout in the direction of the long term trend to pinpoint the trade entry! Use it on your demo account to get familiar with it before you trade live with the triple screen method. Triple screen is a simple but ingenious multiple timeframe approach to forex trading.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! First practice on your Forex Demo Account! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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Beginning with the main Pivot Point that is calculated from the previous day’s key price points, the resulting support and resistance are subsequently derived from the following calculations. How is the pivot levels calculated? Beginning with the main Pivot Point that is calculated from the previous day’s key price points, the resulting support and resistance are subsequently derived from the following calculations:

Resistance 1 R1 = 2PP- Previous Low. Resistance 2 R2 = PP + (R1-S1). Resistance 2 R3 = Previous High + 2(PP-Previous Low).

Main Pivot Point PP = (Previous Low + Previous High + Previous Close)/3.

S3 (Support 3) = Yesterday’s Low-2(Yesterday’s High -PP). S2= PP- (R1-S1). S1 (Support 1) = 2PP – Yesterday’s High.

Now most of the trading software has the inbuilt function to calculate the pivot point for you. The main pivot point can be calculated for any time interval. The main pivot point is very important. After calculating these pivot points they are plotted on the currency price chart. Trader’s can calculate the current day’s pivot points using the above formulas based on the previous day’s price data.

Many traders are afraid of pivot points. They consider them to be difficult to understand and master. Nothing is far from the truth. Breakouts or bounces may be traded with pivot points. Once these pivot levels are calculated and plotted, they are used in much the same way as Fibonacci Retracement. These pivot points are often also used as profit targets. Pivot points also indicate whether the market sentiment is bullish or bearish. Traders also use pivot points as reference levels to provide information as to whether the current price is relatively low or relatively high within its expected price range for the day.

You can further refine your pivot point levels by using the S1, R1 and other levels. S1, S2 and S3 as well as R1, R2 and R3 are used as references in pivot point trading. For example, traders may look for long trading opportunities with the view that the price will reasonably move towards equilibrium around the main PP level if the price is near the day’s S2.

Pivot point trading can be adapted to any time frame. This makes it a highly reliable method of analyzing the market. Many traders use different time frames in their trading decisions. You can also calculate the pivot levels for a week and for a month time frame too. Instead of calculating the pivot points for the current day you can also calculated the above levels for 4 hour charts as well as 8 hour charts.

Both Fibonacci and Pivot Points are excellent technical tools that often encompass entire trading discipline in themselves. Just replace the day’s highs, lows and the closing prices with the appropriate time frame highs, lows and closing prices when calculating the pivot points for the other time frames.

In an extremely bullish market condition, the pivot point can become the target low for the trading session. This number represents the true value of a prior session. It is important to understand that it can be used as an actual trading number in determining the high or the low of a given time period, especially in strong bull or bear market conditions.

Pivot point trading has been successfully used by traders in making trading decisions. Traders will step in and buy the pullback until that pivot point is broken by prices trading below that level. A retracement back to the pivot will attract buyers if the market gaps higher above the pivot point in an uptrending market. The opposite is true for the pivot point will act as the target high for the session in an extremely bearish market condition.

Generally prices come back up to test the pivot point if a news-driven event causes the market to gap lower after traders take time interpreting the information and the news. Sellers will take action and start pressing the market lower again if the market fails to break that level and trade higher. Technically speaking, in a bearish market, the highs should be lower and the lows should be lower than in the preceding time frame.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try These Cash Printing Forex Signals From Heaven! Learn Fibonacci Retracement Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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Divergences are often used as important trading signals. But it doesn’t mean that divergences will always predict a reversal correctly. Price oscillator divergences have long been acknowledged by technical traders as a solid indicator of potential price reversals. Well defined divergences particularly on the long term charts can be surprisingly accurate in many instances.

Catching a major price reversal at the correct time can be so profitable that only a few accurate divergence signals are needed to offset the inevitable false signals. Price divergence oscillators can be spotted with just two elements on the price charts.

How do you determine a divergence? The first element is the price and the second element is an oscillator that runs either above or below a price level. This second element can be Stochastics, RSI, MACD or any similar oscillator.

Many traders use MACD as their sole confirming indicator. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is among the most popular technical indicator or an oscillator invented.

Some traders also take trading signals exclusively from MACD. MACD is a multifaceted indicator that acts as a sign of trend momentum by representing the relationship between two moving averages.

You must have used MACD in your trading. MACD is basically the difference between two moving averages. MACD can be traded by taking signals from the crossovers of two lines, crosses above and below the zero line. Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is another popular oscillator that provides a measure of price momentum.

RSI may also be used for divergence purposes. RSI is an indicator that gives overbought and oversold signals in ranging markets. However, its usefulness like most other indicators tends to diminish during a trending market. Stochastic indicator may also be used for divergence trading.

A divergence occurs when there is an imbalance between the price element and the oscillator element. Both begin to go separate ways and start telling opposite tales. This is the point when the oscillator is providing a strong hint that price may be losing its momentum and a change in price direction may therefore be impending.

A bearish divergence occurs when the price hits a higher high while the oscillator hits a lower high. A bearish divergence is a hint for an impending reversal back down.

A bearish divergence is an indication that price may soon turn and go back down as the higher high in the price may lose its momentum and begin falling.

On the other hand, a bullish divergence occurs when price hits a lower low while the oscillator hits a corresponding higher low. A bullish divergence hints at an impending reversal back up.

Divergences are often used as hints of possible turns and reversals. However, divergences are not frequently used as a full fledged self sufficient trading strategy. When used in conjunction with other trading tools, divergences can be a remarkably effective method for helping to time major market events.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try These Cash Printing Forex Signals From Heaven! Learn Fibonacci Retracement Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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Markets tend to react to the outside events. Markets react to the seasons. Markets react to holidays. Markets react to political crisis. Markets are what the people are thinking. The day before the Presidents day is the worst day and the day after the Easter is the worst day after. However, you should keep in mind that a lot of other factors also come into play and you have a lot of room for error. The next best holiday bets are the Labor Day and the Memorial Day because they fall before the first day of trading in September and June respectively.

The best time of the year to own stocks is the Santa Claus rally which for all practical purposes is the 17 day stretch from December 21 to January 7. This is the best time of the year. Most of the folks usually feel fairly good about themselves around this time of the year.

There is a low trading volume which tends to exaggerate the trend. If the economy is not doing good and is slowing down, FED tends to lower interest rates during holidays in order to go into the new year with less of a worry. However, when you are dealing with seasonality, you should keep these facts in your mind:

1) The market is not longer static. Money has no borders now. With one mouse click money is transferred from one locality to another. The seasonal effect may get interrupted by other events. More and more people have real time access to information and larger amounts of capital than at any time in the past.

2) Institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have become important players in the markets. So in case of an event free environment, seasonal tendencies may hold up fairly well. At the end of the year, institutional investors want to make their results look as good as possible to their shareholders and tend to buy the stocks and so on.

3) The days of long term investing or what you call buy and hold are dead! Frequent market crashes have taught the investing public that investing for the long term is fairly risky. So there is more short term trading going on. These are the times for day traders and swing traders. With fewer people willing to hold stocks for longer periods, it is very difficult to predict seasonality.

4) A lot will be written about the recent stock market crash. What were the actual causes of the recent stock market crash? Why so many big banks went belly up in matter of days. What was so special that made this liquidity problem contagious with banks all over the world? The recent market crash was the result of CMO and Default Swaps bringing down the banks and Insurance companies in ways that had not been anticipated or foreseen by the analysts. Many had assumed that derivate securities are safe. Infact they have highly unpredictable tendencies. Derivates and outside the market trading activities can result in highly unpredictable patterns.

Many things are changing. The world is always changing. There is a change in demographics also taking place. With the aging of the population, the overall trend will be towards more income producing investments. So with everyone talking about the seasonal tendencies in the market, it reliability becomes less diminished.

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Know These Candlestick Patterns! Get a totally unique version of this article from our article submission service

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