October is the month in which the most infamous crashes historically took place. The party starts in December and continues in the early part of January with some hangover effect. So what is the January Effect?
New Year is the end of a year and the beginning of a new year. This is what makes the January Effect so special. There is usually a rally in the stocks in the first few days of January. There are various reasons behind the rally. Most of the people are trying to pay their taxes at that time of the year. The companies are trying to show a good performance at the end of the year by cleaning their balance sheets. The January Effect can be quite a rally but much depends on the strength of the economy, how good December was and is there any catalyst to move the markets. There is usually a significant rally in the early part of January that actually sets the tone for the rest of the month and sometimes for the rest of the year. New Year is party time. People are in exuberant mood. Everyone wants to forget the past year and start the coming year with high hopes and good expectations. This is what is so special about the January Effect. So what is this January Effect? January Effect actually starts in the mid December and tends to favor small stocks. The most profitable period as measured statistically has been found to start from December 31st and end around February 28th with an average rate of return of 6.6% on smaller stocks.
Now January Effect may happen or may not happen but the turn of the month that is the last day of the month and first five days of the next month form a very good seasonal pattern. Now, you must know this fact that the January Effect is not guaranteed every year. The best example is the year 2007 when the market became bearish and didnt start to look to bottom out until March 2008.
If you buy stocks at the last day of the month and hold them for the first five days for the next month, chances are you are going to make some profit. This can be a good swing trading strategy. At the end of the fifth day you move your money back into the money market funds. Turn of the month is a very good seasonal pattern that actually holds up more often than not.
You can do the same on the holidays. Move your money in on the day before the holiday and sell it on the day after the holiday. This system works because the pension funds tend to put new money to work during the holidays and the overall tendency of the market to rise improves.
People start to feel happy when the holidays approach and buy stocks before they run off to celebrate Christmas, the fourth of July, the Labor Day and so on. After the party the reality sets in the stocks are usually sold off. The holidays and those times when people traditionally take vacations often lead to higher prices. Fewer traders lead to lower trading volume which in turn tends to exaggerate price moves.
Thats because these days fall within the most bullish time period of the year, winter! The three days before the New Year Eve and the first three days trading days after the New Year are your best holiday bet for making money.
Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This 1500 Pips A Day Forex Signal Service! Know These Candlestick Patterns! Click here to get your own unique version of this article with free reprint rights.
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